Ever wondered why even the best golfers only sink 54.8% of six-foot putts? Or why experienced musicians often miss errors in familiar pieces? Why are doctors misdiagnosing fatal illnesses about 20% of the time? How does overconfidence lead to financial losses? Are men more overconfident and risk-prone than women? Discover the fascinating world of human perception, memory, overconfidence, and decision-making errors.

Why We Make Mistakes: How We Look Without Seeing, Forget Things in Seconds, and Are All Pretty Sure We Are Way Above Average

Burt Reynolds once found himself in an unexpected bar brawl, not realizing his opponent lacked legs until it was too late. This tale highlights a common human error: seeing but not truly observing. Our eyes take in only a fraction of our visual field, and our brains fill in the gaps, leading to what researchers call a "looked but didn't see" error. This is why we often miss crucial details, whether it's a wheelchair by the door or the finer points of a scene.

Studies show that men and women notice different details, and even handedness affects perception. For instance, right-handed people in the U.S. prefer turning right, and they're better at recalling the orientation of objects compared to left-handers. This selective attention is also evident in sports, where experts maintain longer "quiet-eye periods," allowing them to focus better than novices.

This phenomenon extends to change blindness, where people fail to notice significant alterations in their environment. An experiment by Daniel Simons and Daniel Levin demonstrated this by swapping an actor during a brief distraction, leaving most pedestrians oblivious to the change. Similarly, continuity errors in films often go unnoticed, as our brains skim over details, focusing instead on the broader narrative.

Our perception is influenced by our expectations and social groups. In another experiment, people failed to notice when a "stranger" was swapped with another during a brief distraction, unless the stranger belonged to their social group. This suggests we often categorize people based on stereotypes, ignoring individual details.

Even trained professionals like radiologists and airport screeners can fall victim to these perceptual blind spots, missing critical details due to the rarity of their targets. This has serious implications, as evidenced by high error rates in detecting tumors or contraband.

Our memories, too, are shaped by meaning rather than surface details. Faces are remembered better than names because they hold more semantic value. This is why we often forget names or confuse them. A famous slip occurred when Joe Theismann referred to "Norman Einstein" instead of Albert Einstein, a mistake rooted in meaning rather than memory failure.

Memory can be improved by attaching meaning to otherwise meaningless information, as demonstrated by a runner who memorized numbers by relating them to race times. However, this strategy has limits, as unusual hiding places or passwords can become forgettable if they lack significance.

Eyewitness identification highlights the importance of meaning in memory. June Siler's misidentification of her attacker in a courtroom was a result of focusing on emotional traits rather than physical features. This mistake underscores the broader issue of eyewitness errors, which have led to numerous wrongful convictions.

In short, our perception and memory are deeply intertwined with meaning, influenced by societal norms, expectations, and personal biases. Recognizing these limitations can help us become more aware of what we see and remember, leading to fewer errors in judgment and decision-making.

Can Burt Reynolds' Bar Brawl Teach Us About the Flaws in Human Perception?

Imagine being on a witness stand, like June Siler, trying to identify your attacker and realizing your brain's intuitive machinery can't connect the dots. This is the power of our minds making snap judgments, as Roger Shepard illustrated with his optical illusions. We perceive more than just what's there—our brains fill in gaps, sometimes leading us astray.

This phenomenon extends to various aspects of our lives, including politics and economics. A Princeton study revealed that voters often make judgments about a candidate's competence in a split second based on facial features. Such judgments can be remarkably predictive of election outcomes, showing how our initial impressions can stubbornly stick.

Even in more personal aspects like attraction, subtle cues influence us. A study on topless dancers showed that their earnings fluctuated with their fertility cycles, despite the signs being nearly invisible. This suggests that even without conscious awareness, we pick up on these subtle hints.

Our decisions, from voting to spending, often feel rational, but they're swayed by unseen biases. Consider the wine lovers who preferred expensive bottles without realizing the wines were switched. Brain scans proved they genuinely enjoyed the pricier-label wines more, highlighting how price tags can manipulate perception.

Then there's the test-taking myth that sticking with your first answer is best. Decades of research debunk this, yet many still cling to the notion, driven by regret's potent grip. People fear the regret of changing a right answer to a wrong one more than sticking with an incorrect choice.

Our memories, too, are not as reliable as we assume. John Dean's Watergate testimony showed how even detailed recollections can be distorted by self-serving biases. We tend to remember events and ourselves more favorably, a bias illustrated by people's inflated recollections of their high school grades or sexual history.

Gambling provides another lens. Gamblers often remember their wins clearly but rationalize away their losses. This selective memory fuels their confidence, despite frequent defeats. It's a reminder of how our minds protect our self-esteem by rewriting history in our favor.

Biases, often unnoticed, shape our judgments in myriad ways. Doctors, for example, might claim they're immune to pharmaceutical influence, yet studies show otherwise. Even when biases are disclosed, like in financial advising, they persist, as clients struggle to adjust appropriately.

Ultimately, these insights remind us of the depth of our unconscious biases and the complexity of decision-making. We assume we're rational, yet our judgments are more fragile and influenced by unseen forces than we might care to admit. Understanding this can help us navigate life's choices more mindfully.

Unmasking Unseen Biases: Lessons from Roger Shepard to John Dean

When Captain Robert Loft of Eastern Airlines Flight 401 noticed the landing gear light wasn't on during his final approach to Miami, he called his crew for assistance. They became so engrossed in troubleshooting the problem that no one was flying the plane. Consequently, the aircraft crashed into the Everglades, killing 99 people. This incident, termed "Controlled Flight into Terrain" (CFIT), highlights how task saturation—trying to do too many things at once—can have deadly consequences.

Multitasking, or switching tasks rapidly, is a common myth. Research shows that our brains can't focus on multiple tasks simultaneously. Gloria Mark's study at UC Irvine revealed that office workers were interrupted about 20 times an hour, reducing their focus to mere minutes per task. This constant switching leads to mistakes and downtime, as it takes up to 15 minutes to regain concentration after an interruption.

Multitasking also hampers memory. A study found that switching tasks causes us to forget what we were doing, with a forgetting rate as high as 40%. This is particularly dangerous for roles like air traffic controllers. Real-world implications include the dangers of using cell phones while driving. A 1999 U.S. Army study concluded that all forms of cellular phone usage impair driving abilities, with older drivers being more affected.

Inattentional blindness is another peril of divided attention. In a 2004 incident, a bus driver distracted by a phone call failed to see a low-clearance bridge, resulting in a serious accident. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found that 78% of crashes involved driver inattention.

Despite these risks, car manufacturers are adding more distracting gadgets to vehicles. Ford's Sync system allows drivers to control devices and send texts while driving, increasing the potential for distraction. Research shows that older drivers, who take longer to recover from task switching, are particularly vulnerable.

To mitigate these risks, automakers are developing "workload managers" to help drivers focus on the road. However, the increasing number of gadgets in vehicles makes it more challenging to maintain safe driving practices. The story of Captain Loft and CFIT serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of multitasking and the importance of staying focused on critical tasks.

Can Captain Loft's Tragic Crash Teach Us the Real Dangers of Multitasking?

Newspapers often highlight their errors in correction columns, making for fascinating reading. In 2004, Craig Silverman started a website, regrettheerror.com, to compile these errors. One memorable correction from the Wall Street Journal involved a mix-up between "unicycles" and "unicorns."

Research shows that we don't read every letter of every word, leading to mistakes, a phenomenon termed "proofreader's errors." For example, investors pay more attention to financial news at the start of the week. Similarly, experienced musicians often overlook errors in familiar pieces, as demonstrated by Boris Goldovsky's piano students and John Sloboda's experiments.

Even experts make mistakes that novices catch, such as a young boy correcting NASA's asteroid collision estimates or another identifying a movie clip used by a Russian TV network. Familiarity causes us to miss details, as seen in experiments where emotional context significantly influenced recall.

Stanley Milgram's map experiments revealed how people systematically distort maps by straightening curved lines, like the Seine in Paris. Barbara Tversky's research showed similar distortions in mental maps, with people misaligning cities and landmarks based on simplified hierarchies.

F.C. Bartlett's study of memory through the Native American folktale "The War of the Ghosts" showed how people simplify, rationalize, and distort stories to fit their understanding. This distortion extends to everyday life, where we often alter stories to manage impressions, as found in studies by Tversky and Elizabeth Marsh. These alterations can lead to self-deception, where storytellers believe their own embellished versions.

Overall, our perception and memory are heavily influenced by context, familiarity, and the need for coherence, often leading to significant distortions in how we see, remember, and recount events.

From Unicycles to Unicorns: The Fascinating World of Corrections and Cognitive Errors

Speed demons in Finland, it turns out, aren't just racing down highways—they're also racing through stock trades. A study found a curious correlation: each extra speeding ticket a driver received corresponded with an 11% uptick in the turnover of their stock portfolio. The faster they drove, the more they traded, and not to their advantage; high-frequency traders often earned the least. 

Interestingly, this excessive trading was linked not just to speeding tickets, but predominantly to men. Men tend to trade stocks 45% more often than women, with single men trading 67% more than single women, likely due to overconfidence. Men overestimate their intelligence and attractiveness and this overconfidence extends to traditionally male-dominated fields like finance and warfare.

In fact, studies show men in the military are quicker to shoot in simulated friendly fire incidents, while women hesitate. In war games, men launched more unprovoked attacks than women, driven by overconfidence. This tendency to take risks extends into everyday life—men are three times more likely than women to be in fatal car crashes, partly because they're more willing to take risks like running yellow lights.

Financially, this risk-taking costs men too. Men’s frequent trading reduces their returns by almost a full percentage point more per year than women’s. Yet, men and women perceive risk differently. Women, generally more risk-averse, deem certain activities not worth the risk, while men, valuing the potential benefits more, jump in.

This confidence gap affects self-perception too. Men forget their mistakes easily, whereas women let failures weigh on their self-esteem. Even in lying, men inflate their achievements, while women lie to make others feel better. This difference was amusingly evident in a study where women sold lottery tickets back for far less than men did, reflecting lower confidence in the ticket's value.

The digital world isn't immune to these differences. Women, less confident in tech, tend to avoid complex software features, sticking to what they know. Men, on the other hand, love to tinker, which often leads to success.

Geographically, boys as young as six show a reluctance to ask for directions, a trait that persists into adulthood. This behavior ties back to the freedom to roam: boys are often allowed to explore more than girls, honing their spatial skills.

All this boils down to a simple truth: overconfidence often leads to error. We see this in NutriSystem’s success, banking on overconfident dieters who believe they’ll achieve results "above average." Health clubs and credit card companies exploit similar tendencies, knowing people overestimate their willpower.

Overconfidence is pervasive, even in corporate boardrooms. Executives often overestimate their knowledge, as demonstrated by quizzes showing their confidence far outstrips accuracy.

But not all is lost. Weather forecasters, thanks to precise feedback, are remarkably well-calibrated in their predictions. Feedback is powerful—it’s why slot machines pay out immediately. In fields where feedback is slow or weak, like finance, errors are easily overlooked.

Even Warren Buffett, despite incredible success, acknowledges past missteps and the role of feedback in learning. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, thrives partly because feedback is integrated into its culture, allowing it to adapt and improve continuously.

In short, while overconfidence can lead to errors, recognizing it and learning from feedback can improve decision-making, whether you're behind the wheel or in front of a trading screen.

Is Overconfidence Steering Finland's Speeding Traders Off Course?

In the late 1980s, the Professional Golfers' Association (PGA) conducted a study to measure the putting accuracy of professional golfers. They found that the best golfers only sank 54.8% of six-foot putts, contrary to the much higher estimates by the golfers themselves. This overconfidence is not limited to golfers. 

Studies have shown that professionals in various fields, such as clinical psychologists and securities analysts, often perform no better than novices or even worse over time, despite their expertise.

For instance, securities analysts' predictions of company earnings were wrong 30% of the time in 1980, 52% in 1985, and 65% in 1990. Similarly, studies have shown that experts' predictions in fields like medical diagnosis and criminal recidivism are often outperformed by simple actuarial models.

One key to becoming an expert lies in extensive, deliberate practice. Research by K. Anders Ericsson reveals that it typically takes about ten years of intense, focused practice to achieve world-class expertise. This practice helps build a vast memory library in the mind, allowing experts to quickly recognize patterns and anticipate events.

Cognitive maps, mental representations of the environment, help both animals and humans navigate and solve problems. However, most people do not read instructions, preferring to rely on their mental models, which can lead to errors. For example, when asked to wire a common household electrical plug, only five out of twenty-four adults did so correctly, with most ignoring the instructions.

Errors can also arise from functional fixedness, where people stick to a familiar method even when a simpler solution exists. For example, in an experiment involving filling jars with water, participants continued using a more complex method even when a simpler one was available.

To reduce errors, constraints or mental aids can be introduced. These constraints can be physical, like the shape of scissors' handles, or more abstract, like color-coded labels. An example of the importance of constraints is seen in the case of newborn twins who were given a massive overdose of heparin due to similar packaging of different doses.

High-reliability organizations (HROs), like naval aviation, achieve low failure rates under hazardous conditions by fostering a culture of safety and continuous improvement. In contrast, hospitals, which also claim to prioritize safety, often have higher rates of errors due to less centralized control and differing attitudes towards safety.

Studies have shown that doctors misdiagnose fatal illnesses about 20% of the time, a rate that has not improved since the 1930s. One reason for this is the hierarchical nature of operating rooms, where junior staff may be reluctant to question senior staff's decisions, unlike the more egalitarian approach in aviation.

In one documented case, a surgeon insisted on operating on the wrong side of a patient's vulva for cancer removal, leading to unnecessary mutilation. This highlights the need for better communication and humility among professionals to reduce errors and improve outcomes.

From PGA Misjudgments to Medical Mishaps: The Hidden Perils of Expert Overconfidence

In the summer of 2000, Pete and Jennifer Marino, newlyweds from Wisconsin, made a life-changing decision to move to California. Pete was accepted into UCLA's business school, and the couple was entranced by the allure of Southern California’s warm weather and vibrant culture. They fully embraced the LA lifestyle, from helicopter tours to celebrity sightings. 

However, as they settled into life in West Los Angeles, reality set in. The high cost of living, crime, and superficiality of the culture began to wear on them, especially when they had their first child, Max. The constant pressure to get on school waitlists and volunteer even before Max was born felt overwhelming. 

Their neighborhood wasn't as safe as they hoped, with frequent break-ins and police activity. They even had a surreal encounter with actress Charisma Carpenter at their son's baptism, which highlighted the stark differences from their life in Wisconsin. Eventually, Pete and Jen decided California was not the place to raise their family and moved back to the Midwest in 2004, despite the allure of California that draws millions every year.

This story is a vivid example of how we often mispredict our happiness based on expectations. Psychologist David Schkade’s research supports this, showing that people overestimate how happy certain factors, like weather, will make them. Studies reveal that our predictions about our future happiness are often influenced by focusing on minor factors while ignoring significant aspects of daily life.

Interestingly, people with permanent colostomies were found to be happier than those with reversible ones, as hope for change impeded adaptation. This aligns with broader findings that circumstances don't significantly impact well-being. For example, individuals with disabilities report high levels of satisfaction, defying common expectations.

Moreover, our errors in predicting future behavior extend to everyday decisions, like buying gift cards, which often go unused, benefiting retailers at consumers' expense. High school smokers underestimated their future smoking habits, revealing a common projection bias.

To improve decision-making, it's essential to consider small details and potential pitfalls. Royal Dutch Shell improved geologists' predictions through calibration training, emphasizing the importance of feedback. Negative thinking, or anticipating what could go wrong, can also prevent errors, as demonstrated by military and business strategies.

Ultimately, happiness correlates with how we use our time rather than where we live. Schkade's move to California became fulfilling when he embraced local activities, underscoring that it's not the location but the lifestyle changes that matter. Thus, re-crafting our lives and focusing on meaningful experiences are key to true happiness.

Did Pete and Jennifer Marino's California Dream Turn into a Nightmare?

Often, we think we see the full picture, but in reality, our brains fill in many gaps, leading to missed details. Men and women perceive the world differently, influenced by factors like handedness and selective attention. This selective perception is evident in various domains, from sports to everyday life, contributing to phenomena like change blindness and continuity errors in films.

Our expectations and social biases also shape what we notice and remember, which can lead to critical errors, even among professionals like radiologists. Similarly, our memory is more about meaning than details, often leading to distorted recollections and eyewitness errors.

Interestingly, our judgments and decisions are heavily swayed by unconscious biases and initial impressions, affecting everything from political choices to everyday interactions. Overconfidence is a significant factor, leading to frequent mistakes in areas like finance and driving. Men, in particular, exhibit higher overconfidence, impacting their risk-taking behavior and decision-making.

The myth of multitasking is another insight; our brains aren't built to handle multiple tasks simultaneously, leading to errors and inefficiencies. This is evident in high-stakes environments like aviation and driving, where divided attention can have fatal consequences.

In professional fields, extensive deliberate practice is crucial for true expertise, yet even experts can be prone to errors due to overconfidence and reliance on flawed mental models. High-reliability organizations like naval aviation demonstrate the importance of a culture focused on safety and continuous improvement, contrasting with more error-prone fields like healthcare.

Finally, our ability to predict happiness based on expectations is often flawed. We tend to overestimate the impact of minor factors on our well-being, while significant life aspects go unnoticed. Embracing local activities and meaningful experiences is more crucial for happiness than external circumstances or locations. Recognizing these cognitive biases and perceptual limitations can help us make better decisions and lead more fulfilling lives.

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Why We Make Mistakes: How We Look Without Seeing, Forget Things in Seconds, and Are All Pretty Sure We Are Way Above Average

Joseph T. Hallinan

8 Key ideas

24 MINS

4.5 (945)

Ever wondered why even the best golfers only sink 54.8% of six-foot putts?

Or why experienced musicians often miss errors in familiar pieces?

Why are doctors misdiagnosing fatal illnesses about 20% of the time?

How does overconfidence lead to financial losses?

Are men more overconfident and risk-prone than women?

Discover the fascinating world of human perception, memory, overconfidence, and decision-making errors.

Key Ideas

#1