What do Muhammad ibn Saud, Nelson Mandela, and Michael Brown have in common? Their stories, set across centuries and continents, unravel humanity's timeless struggle between liberty and despotism, tradition and progress. From Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabi roots to apartheid South Africa’s resilience, Ferguson’s unrest, and China’s centralized control, each chapter explores the delicate balance of power, society, and freedom. Are we destined to repeat history, or can we rewrite it for liberty’s fragile triumph?

The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty

In 1989, Francis Fukuyama heralded the "end of history" with the triumph of Western democracy, yet Robert Kaplan soon countered with visions of global anarchy, beginning in West Africa—a region rife with disease, crime, and resource scarcity. 

Meanwhile, Yuval Noah Harari warned of "digital dictatorships" emerging through AI. Amidst this debate, the Democratic Republic of the Congo became a symbol of chaos, where the joke of an "Article 15" constitution—telling citizens to "fend for themselves"—underscored the absence of effective governance in a nation ravaged by violence and neglect.

A journey through Nigeria's past reveals a city in chaos, Lagos, where crime and corruption were rampant, embodying Philip Pettit's concept of "dominance"—a life shadowed by fear and insecurity. Yet, Hobbes’ notion of a Leviathan—a powerful state to prevent such anarchy—offers no panacea. History reveals the Janus-faced nature of states, capable of both protection and oppression, as seen in Nazi Germany and Maoist China, where capable bureaucracies and centralized power led not to liberty, but to dominance and repression.

The narrative shifts to Wyoming, where the establishment of a Shackled Leviathan—a state powerful yet accountable to its people—countered anarchy and loosened the cage of norms, offering a beacon of hope for liberty. The Shackled Leviathan, unlike its despotic counterpart, balances state power with societal involvement, as demonstrated by Wyoming's early grant of female suffrage.

The book explores the evolution of state-society relations, focusing on how societies counter state power by fostering a balance that promotes liberty. It examines historical configurations leading to different types of Leviathans and their implications for economic prosperity and societal freedom. The narrative highlights the importance of a Shackled Leviathan in creating economic incentives and opportunities, contrasting it with the Despotic Leviathan's limited and inequitable prosperity.

Throughout history, regions like Europe have managed to build Shackled Leviathans by marrying participatory traditions with centralized state structures, unlike China, where early state development stifled societal mobilization. India’s caste system exemplifies how entrenched norms can immobilize a society, preventing effective state monitoring and accountability.

The narrative concludes by underscoring the rarity and fragility of liberty, emphasizing the ongoing effort required to build and maintain a Shackled Leviathan. Amidst diverse global possibilities, the emergence of such states offers hope—not the end of history, but a continual, contentious journey toward liberty.

Can the Shackled Leviathan Truly Save Us from the Chaos Predicted by Fukuyama, Kaplan, and Harari?

Around 1200 BCE, the Greek Dark Ages began as Bronze Age civilizations collapsed. Centralized palaces and administrations, with their Linear B writing system and tax collection, vanished, leaving chaos in their wake. This period is epitomized by the legend of Theseus, a mythical ruler of Athens, whose exploits were chronicled by Plutarch. 

Theseus, the illegitimate son of Athens' king, Aegeus, journeyed back to Athens, battling bandits along the way, such as the club-wielding Periphetes, the Crommyonian Sow, and Procrustes, the Stretcher. His quest highlighted the lawlessness of Greece, a time when justice was meted out as "an eye for an eye."

As Athens emerged from the Dark Ages, power shifted from kings to Archons, or chief magistrates, representing rich families vying for control. The need for order led to Draco's written laws in 621 BCE, known for their draconian punishments. These laws, dealing with issues like involuntary homicide, were enforced by extended kin groups, similar to Albania’s Kanun, which governed without centralized authority, relying on blood feuds and kinship for justice.

Enter Solon, a reformer in 594 BCE, who sought balance between elites and citizens. Solon canceled debt peonage, liberated small farmers, and restructured political institutions, including the Boule and Areopagus. His Hubris Law, protecting even slaves from humiliation, exemplified his efforts to empower citizens and constrain elites, fostering a Shackled Leviathan—a state that balanced power with societal control.

This balance is akin to the Red Queen effect from Lewis Carroll's "Through the Looking-Glass," where constant running keeps one in place. In political terms, state and society must race to maintain equilibrium. When the state becomes too powerful, it risks despotic tendencies. Conversely, if society is too weak, an Absent Leviathan prevails, as seen in stateless societies like the Tiv of Nigeria, who used norms and witchcraft accusations to prevent hierarchy and maintain egalitarianism.

Modern parallels exist, such as Lebanon, where fear of power imbalances prevents a census and keeps the state weak, relying on community-based governance. Despite appearing modern, Lebanon remains an Absent Leviathan, with power rooted in sectarian communities, avoiding legibility and potential domination.

Thus, the evolution of states hinges on the delicate balance between state and society, with the Shackled Leviathan fostering liberty through cooperation, vigilance, and a struggle akin to the Red Queen effect. This dynamic interplay is crucial for the emergence of true liberty, as seen in historical contexts from Athens to America, and provides a framework for understanding the diverse paths societies take in developing their political structures.

Solon's Shackled Leviathan: Balancing Power from Athens to Modernity

The story of Muhammad's rise in Mecca is one of transformation and the birth of a powerful Islamic state. Born around 570 CE, Muhammad was immersed in the bustling trade hub of Mecca, a city central to commerce, pilgrimage, and religious reverence around the Kaaba. The clans of Mecca and Medina were desert nomads, adjusting to sedentary life without centralized authority. 

Muhammad emerged as a prophet, receiving revelations that formed the Quran, urging a new monotheistic faith with Allah as the sole deity. His teachings transcended clan loyalties, fostering a new community and norms.

Muhammad's vision was met with resistance, particularly from trading clans worried about his political ambitions. His following grew, leading to his emigration to Medina in 622, invited to mediate conflicts among its clans. This move was documented in the Constitution of Medina, marking his role as a judge. Despite lacking formal power, Muhammad's influence expanded, organizing raids against Meccan caravans, which were seen as conflicts between Muslims and non-believers. Victories like the battle of Badr increased his prestige, leading to societal reforms.

Muhammad's success attracted nomadic tribes, swelling his ranks and wealth. By 630, he commanded 10,000 horses. He leveraged this power, forcing Meccan concessions and making followers pledge loyalty, effectively establishing a new state. His state-building project centralized authority, reshaping societal norms and creating what anthropologists call "pristine state formation."

The narrative of Muhammad's rise parallels historical state formations, like Shaka Zulu's militarized society and King Kamehameha's Hawaii, illustrating the "will to power"—the drive to dominate and reorganize society. These leaders, with their edges such as religion, organization, or technology, succeeded where others failed, overcoming norms meant to prevent their rise.

Shaka Zulu and Kamehameha illustrate the transformation of societies through military and technological edges, breaking traditional norms to centralize power. Shaka's reorganization militarized age grades and controlled land and cattle, while Kamehameha utilized gunpowder to unify Hawaii, dismantling kapu norms to solidify his rule.

The story extends to modern examples like Georgia's tumultuous 1990s, where Eduard Shevardnadze navigated a fragmented political landscape post-Soviet Union. His rise, marked by manipulation and corruption, illustrates the struggles of maintaining power in societies lacking centralized authority. Like historical figures, Shevardnadze leveraged chaos, co-opting elites through corruption to sustain his rule, reflecting the inherent challenges of state-building.

These narratives underscore the complex dynamics of state formation, the slippery slope from statelessness to centralized authority, and the enduring challenge of balancing power and societal norms. They highlight the transformative impact of charismatic leaders with an edge, reshaping societies and redefining political hierarchies across history.

Could Muhammad's State-Building Legacy Parallel Shaka Zulu and Kamehameha's Triumphs?

As you step into Siena's Piazza del Campo, the Palazzo Pubblico beckons with its historical grandeur. Built in 1297, it housed the government of Siena, led by "The Nine," a group of consuls who convened in the Sala dei Nove. Here, Ambrogio Lorenzetti painted frescoes that depicted the essence of good governance. The Allegory of Good Government portrays a ruler surrounded by virtues like Fortitude and Justice, symbolizing Siena's commune rather than a monarch. This imagery celebrates a society where rulers are background figures, emphasizing liberty and prosperity through communal governance.

In Italy during the late medieval period, communes emerged as citizens challenged ecclesiastical and feudal authorities, establishing self-governance and promoting economic growth. These communes fostered broad-based incentives and opportunities, like in Siena, where political assemblies and councils ensured representation and constrained the power of rulers. This balance of power between state and society led to innovation and prosperity.

The tale of Saint Francis of Assisi illustrates this economic revolution. Born Giovanni di Pietro di Bernardone, his father, a merchant, thrived in the Champagne fairs of France—centers of trade that flourished due to innovative economic institutions. The Italian communes facilitated trade and commerce by promoting financial innovations like bills of exchange, mercantile insurance, and contractual forms.

As Europe moved into the corridor, the Scissors effect—combining Roman centralized state institutions with Germanic participatory norms—enabled the rise of liberty. This balance between state and society fueled the Shackled Leviathan, paving the way for the Industrial Revolution. In England, the Glorious Revolution of 1688 further strengthened societal power, leading to political institutions that supported liberty and economic growth.

However, societal mobilization was necessary for progress. Caroline Norton’s advocacy in 19th-century England highlighted the struggle for women's rights, leading to legal reforms like the Married Women’s Property Act. The suffragette movement ensured political representation for women, showing that liberty evolves through persistent societal engagement.

The Industrial Revolution exemplified the economic fruits of liberty, with figures like Richard Arkwright and James Watt rising from humble beginnings to transform industries. This era of innovation was driven by decentralized experimentation, unrestrained by political authority.

Europe's history demonstrates the importance of a balanced power dynamic between state and society. It shows that liberty and prosperity can flourish when a mobilized society works alongside a capable state, offering lessons for modern nations striving to enter the corridor.

From Siena to Saint Francis: The Historic Dance of Liberty and Prosperity

During the Spring and Autumn period in China, philosophical ideas flourished, giving rise to Confucianism, which emphasized virtuous leadership and the welfare of the people. Confucius and his disciple Mencius believed that rulers should earn the people's trust to maintain their power. This era saw citizens actively engaging in politics, much like in ancient Athens, with city-states allowing people to influence governance.

However, the Warring States period brought about a shift towards legalism, a philosophy advocating for absolute state control. Shang Yang, a key figure in legalism, believed in strengthening the state by weakening society, prioritizing a strong army and centralized power. His reforms laid the foundation for the Qin dynasty, the first Chinese empire, which enforced strict laws and uniform systems.

Despite these changes, the Qin's heavy-handed rule led to its downfall, with the Han dynasty adopting a slightly more Confucian approach, reducing taxes and labor obligations. Over time, Chinese governance oscillated between the strict legalist model and the more relaxed Confucian ideals, yet always maintaining a strong central authority.

Throughout Chinese history, the state exerted significant control over society and the economy, often stifling innovation and economic opportunities. The Ming and Qing dynasties further exemplified this pattern, with periods of heavy regulation and state monopolies. Despite some economic growth, China lagged behind Europe, where more liberty spurred industrialization and innovation.

The Communist Party's rise in 1949 marked a continuation of the despotic state tradition, with Mao Zedong intensifying state control. However, post-Mao reforms under Deng Xiaoping relaxed some economic controls, leading to rapid growth. Nonetheless, this growth remained under state oversight, with property rights and business opportunities still heavily dependent on political connections.

Today, China's economic success is impressive, but it operates within a framework of state control that limits innovation and liberty. The government's increasing use of surveillance and social credit systems underscores its focus on maintaining control, raising questions about the potential for true liberty and sustained innovation. Despite economic advancements, China's historical trajectory of despotism continues to shape its present and future challenges.

Can China's Historical Struggle Between Confucianism and Legalism Unlock True Liberty and Innovation Today?

In 2007, Manoj and Babli from Karoran village in Haryana, India, fell in love, breaking an ancient caste norm. Though both were Banwala Jats, they belonged to the same gotra, a violation of the caste system's marital rules outlined in Kautilya's Arthashastra. Despite no legal barriers, their decision to marry led to tragic consequences. 

Babli's family accused Manoj of kidnapping, forcing the couple into a legal battle. After a court hearing, they sought police protection but were abducted and murdered by Babli's relatives. This horrific event highlighted the enduring power of caste norms, which have been entrenched in Indian society for millennia, often overshadowing legal and democratic frameworks.

The caste system, deeply rooted in Indian history, divides society into rigid hierarchical groups, stifling social mobility and innovation. This system not only perpetuates poverty but also undermines liberty, as seen in the plight of Dalits, historically known as "untouchables." Despite legal protections, Dalits still face severe discrimination, underscoring the resilience of caste norms.

The persistence of these norms has significant political ramifications. While India is the world's largest democracy with a history of local governance, caste divisions fragment society, preventing effective state-society cooperation. This fragmentation stymies the development of state capacity and undermines democratic institutions. In Bihar, for example, local politics is dominated by caste alliances, leading to inefficiencies and a lack of state capacity.

Historically, India's political landscape was characterized by assemblies, like the gana-sanghas, which allowed for popular participation. However, the rise of centralized states aligned with caste hierarchies curtailed these democratic practices. The caste system became intertwined with state power, reinforcing social hierarchies and limiting societal mobilization.

In modern India, democratic politics continue to be influenced by caste. While village assemblies, or panchayats, have roots in ancient governance structures, their effectiveness is often compromised by the rigid social substratum. The caste system distorts political competition, as political alliances are often based on caste lines, further hindering the state's ability to address societal needs.

The story of Manoj and Babli serves as a poignant reminder of the enduring power of caste norms in India. Despite legal advancements and democratic institutions, the caste system continues to dictate social relations and political dynamics, highlighting the challenges of achieving true liberty and equality in a deeply hierarchical society.

Love vs. Caste: The Tragic Tale of Manoj and Babli

In the heart of Europe, a tale unfolds of contrasting destinies shaped by the intricate dance between state power and societal influence. England strides confidently towards participatory government, while the Swiss Confederation, nestled among formidable neighbors, crafts a citizen army and powerful political assemblies, embodying Machiavelli's ideal of armed freedom. 

Yet, as Switzerland blossoms in liberty, Prussia marches to a different beat. Voltaire's quip captures its essence: an army possessing a state. Meanwhile, Montenegro and Albania grapple with uncoordinated violence, resisting centralized authority in favor of clan loyalty.

What causes such divergence from similar beginnings? The answer lies in the delicate balance of power between state and society, a theme that resonates deeply across continents and centuries. The military mobilization and war that forge strong states in Switzerland and Prussia yield vastly different outcomes—one fostering liberty, the other despotism. In Switzerland, the threat of Habsburg dominance urges cantons to unite, strengthening both state and society. Conversely, Prussia's pursuit of state power overwhelms societal constraints, creating a despotic regime.

Further south, Montenegro defies the state's grip, preserving clan autonomy despite warfare's pressures. The legacy of these choices unfolds in modern times, as the collapse of the Soviet Union reveals the varied paths of Eastern European nations. Poland finds itself within the corridor of democracy, while Russia, too distant, falls back into despotism, and Tajikistan descends into chaos.

Beyond Europe, the coffee boom reshapes postcolonial societies in Central America. Costa Rica, with its distributed land and cooperative towns, nurtures a smallholder economy bolstered by public services, moving into the corridor of democracy. Guatemala, bound by colonial structures and labor coercion, descends deeper into despotic control, exemplified by the brutal experiences of Rigoberta Menchú.

These stories reveal the nuanced interplay of historical forces and societal agency. Structural factors, rather than dictating outcomes, offer conditional effects, their impact shaped by the prevailing balance of power. The tapestry of history weaves itself through these divergent paths, highlighting the enduring significance of past decisions and the potential for change—a testament to the dynamic evolution of societies striving towards liberty.

Can Machiavelli's Armed Freedom Explain the Divergent Paths of Europe and Beyond?

In August 2014, the tragic shooting of 18-year-old Michael Brown by officer Darren Wilson in Ferguson, Missouri, highlighted the strained relations between Ferguson's predominantly African American population and its largely white police force. This incident led to widespread protests and brought attention to systemic issues within the Ferguson Police Department, including discriminatory practices against African Americans. 

The Justice Department's report revealed violations of constitutional rights and excessive use of force by the police, reflecting broader patterns of inequality and violence in urban areas across the United States.

The roots of these issues can be traced back to the founding of the American state, where compromises in the Constitution allowed for continued exploitation and discrimination, particularly against African Americans. This has led to a persistent pattern of inequality and a state that struggles to provide adequate public services and protection for all its citizens. The legacy of slavery and systemic racism has also contributed to high levels of poverty, crime, and fear in many African American communities.

The narrative of American exceptionalism often overlooks these damaging consequences, focusing instead on the achievements of U.S. institutions. However, the reality is that the American state has frequently failed to protect its citizens from violence and economic hardship. The public-private partnership model, while innovative, has often resulted in unequal distribution of resources and services, leaving the most vulnerable populations underserved.

The lack of effective state capacity is not unique to the United States. In many parts of the world, particularly in postcolonial nations, similar patterns of weak state institutions and fragmented societies have resulted in what can be described as "Paper Leviathans." These states appear to have the trappings of modern governance but lack the ability to effectively enforce laws or provide services, often relying on corrupt practices and patronage systems to maintain power.

In Colombia, for example, the state's inability to build infrastructure and maintain order has led to isolated communities and fragmented social movements. The pervasive corruption and lack of effective governance have allowed paramilitary groups to fill the void, often with violent consequences. Similarly, in Liberia and other African nations, the legacy of colonialism has left weak state structures that struggle to govern effectively, leading to ongoing conflict and underdevelopment.

Ultimately, these Paper Leviathans illustrate the challenges of creating a state that can balance the power of government with the needs and rights of its citizens. As societies around the world continue to grapple with these issues, the question remains: how can states build the capacity to address new challenges while ensuring liberty and justice for all?

From Ferguson to Paper Leviathans: Unraveling Systemic Inequities and Governance Failures

In the heart of Saudi Arabia, a story unfolds that epitomizes a complex interplay of tradition, religion, and power. The vast, unforgiving Najd desert, once deemed a "tactician's dream and a quartermaster's nightmare" by Field Marshal Erwin Rommel, resisted integration into the grand Islamic empires, leaving its Bedouin tribes politically autonomous. This backdrop sets the stage for the rise of Muhammad ibn Saud and the pivotal meeting with Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab in the 18th century, a moment that would shape a kingdom and a doctrine. 

Al-Wahhab, a fervent Islamic scholar, advocated a puritanical interpretation of Islam, denouncing idolatry and insisting on absolute obedience to rulers. His teachings appealed to Saud, who saw Wahhabism as a tool for military expansion and social control. Their alliance led to the unification of the Arabian Peninsula under the Saud dynasty, laying the foundations of modern Saudi Arabia.

This partnership between religious fervor and political ambition intensified the "cage of norms," a societal framework that restricts individual freedoms and ingrains tradition into everyday life. The Wahhabi doctrine became a cornerstone of Saudi governance, reinforcing despotism through religious legitimacy and shaping the kingdom's approach to modernity.

The story of Saudi Arabia parallels other historical narratives where the struggle between state and society can lead to unexpected outcomes. In Weimar Germany, the polarized dynamics and inability to resolve societal conflicts paved the way for Adolf Hitler's rise. Similarly, Chile's turbulent journey through the corridor of democratization ended with Allende's socialist ambitions clashing with conservative elites, culminating in a military coup.

These tales highlight how societal polarization and elite opposition can destabilize nations, pushing them out of the corridor of balanced state-society relations. The allure of autocrats, as seen in Italian communes, reflects a desperate choice by societies fearing elite domination. Today, echoes of these historical patterns resonate in the rise of populist movements worldwide, challenging the stability of democratic institutions.

Yet, history also shows the resilience of nations. Both Germany and Chile returned to the corridor after their respective authoritarian interludes, demonstrating that the seeds of democracy can regrow if societal balance is restored. This enduring struggle between freedom and despotism, tradition and innovation, remains a defining narrative of human governance, urging us to reflect on our past as we navigate the complexities of the present.

Can Saudi Arabia's Historical Alliance Between Religion and Power Teach Us About Modern Populism?

Sol Plaatje's poignant observation opens a window into South Africa's tumultuous journey in the early 20th century. Born into a land where he was treated as a pariah, Plaatje, a journalist and activist, captured the harsh realities faced by black South Africans. His book, "Native Life in South Africa," chronicled the aftermath of the 1913 Native Land Act, which stripped black landowners of their rights, a move symbolic of the broader systemic oppression that defined the era.

The Native Land Act was a catalyst for dispossession, forcing many, like farmer Kgobadi, into a life of uncertainty and poverty. Kgobadi's refusal to work for a fraction of his former income led to his eviction, highlighting the coercive tactics used to secure cheap labor for white-owned farms and mines. This exploitation was rationalized by politicians who claimed it was justice, yet it was a stark reminder of the entrenched racial hierarchy.

Fast forward to the 1990s, South Africa's paradigm shifted. The apartheid regime crumbled under the weight of a powerful coalition led by the African National Congress (ANC), marking a transition to democracy. This change was fueled by the Rainbow Coalition, a diverse alliance between the ANC, black middle classes, and white industrialists. This coalition was pivotal in moving South Africa into the corridor of democracy, illustrating that societal transformation often requires alliances that transcend historical divisions.

Such transitions are complex, influenced by a nation's history and the balance of power between state and society. Countries like South Africa showcase Path 1, where societal strength counters despotic power. Yet, the journey into the corridor varies; Japan's post-war reconstruction exemplifies co-opting existing elite structures to foster democracy, while Turkey's missed opportunity underscores the dangers of entrenched military and bureaucratic dominance.

Local experiments in governance, like Lagos and Bogotá's efforts to enhance state capacity while engaging society, demonstrate paths toward the corridor. These initiatives reveal the potential for societal mobilization to overcome entrenched challenges, a testament to human resilience and the possibility of progress even in dire circumstances.

The shape of the corridor, influenced by factors like labor coercion and economic specialization, plays a crucial role in determining a nation's trajectory. As South Africa's history illustrates, labor coercion narrows the corridor, making it difficult to achieve liberty. Conversely, the decline of coercive practices and the rise of industry can widen the corridor, offering hope for a more equitable future.

In this complex landscape, globalization and international relations present mixed implications. While globalization can widen the corridor by fostering industrial specialization, it can also narrow it by entrenching agricultural economies. Similarly, international human rights movements can expand the corridor by advocating for protections against despotism, yet the international state system can inadvertently uphold oppressive regimes.

Ultimately, the journey into the corridor is not predetermined. It requires new coalitions, compromises, and a recognition of evolving global dynamics. As nations navigate these challenges, the lessons from South Africa, Japan, Turkey, Lagos, and Bogotá underscore the importance of mobilizing society and forging alliances to keep the path to liberty open.

Sol Plaatje: Chronicler of South Africa's Struggle and Triumph

Reflecting on the complex interplay between state power and societal norms, it's evident that history offers diverse lessons on governance. The concept of the Shackled Leviathan emerges as a critical model, balancing state power with societal involvement to foster liberty and economic prosperity. Historical examples, like Wyoming's early embrace of female suffrage, highlight how accountable governance can counter anarchy and provide hope for freedom.

Yet, the narrative acknowledges the Janus-faced nature of states, capable of protection but also repression, as seen in Nazi Germany and Maoist China. This duality underscores the importance of societal engagement to prevent dominance and maintain liberty. The evolution of state-society relations, particularly in Europe, demonstrates how participatory traditions can complement centralized structures to build prosperous societies.

Conversely, the persistence of entrenched norms, such as India's caste system, exemplifies the challenges of achieving effective governance and societal mobilization. The story of Manoj and Babli underscores how rigid social systems can overshadow legal frameworks, stifling social mobility and political cooperation.

The narrative also explores how charismatic leaders with unique edges can transform societies, as illustrated by Muhammad's rise in Mecca and Shaka Zulu's state-building. These tales highlight the transformative impact of leaders who navigate societal norms to centralize power.

Finally, modern examples like Ferguson, Missouri, reveal the paradox of the American Leviathan, where systemic inequalities challenge the narrative of exceptionalism. This complexity prompts reflection on the enduring struggle between freedom and despotism, urging societies to balance power dynamics to foster liberty.

Overall, the journey toward liberty is ongoing and contentious, requiring vigilance and cooperation to navigate the corridor of balanced state-society relations. The lessons of history offer a framework for understanding diverse paths to governance, emphasizing the fragile and rare nature of true liberty.

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Listening History

The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty

Daron Acemoğlu

11 Key ideas

36 MINS

What do Muhammad ibn Saud, Nelson Mandela, and Michael Brown have in common?