What happens when political ambition collides with a lack of preparation in a high-stakes government transition? How do we ensure that science, resilience, and public service prevail in the face of disruption? From Chris Christie’s turbulent role in Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential handover to Ali Zaidi’s journey, explore the untold stories of chaos.

The Fifth Risk: Undoing Democracy

Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor, stumbled into a pivotal role in Donald Trump's 2016 presidential transition, all because of a piece in the New York Times. After dropping out of the presidential race and backing Trump, Christie learned that Trump had sent someone laughably unqualified to crucial preparatory meetings with the Obama administration. Christie volunteered to lead Trump's transition team, joking, "It’s the next best thing to being president."

Despite Christie's eagerness, Trump was skeptical about the need for a transition team, seeing it as a waste of money. Eventually, Christie raised funds separately to pay for the transition, though Trump remained irate, often accusing Christie of misusing his campaign funds.

The transition efforts faced internal resistance, notably from Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, who bore a grudge against Christie for prosecuting his father. Even with tensions, Christie pushed on, assembling lists of potential appointees for key government roles. Yet, Trump's inner circle was skeptical, and Christie realized many in Trump's camp viewed the federal government with suspicion or disdain.

Meanwhile, Max Stier, head of the Partnership for Public Service, had spent years advocating for smoother presidential transitions, stressing their importance in maintaining governmental stability. He saw the transition as critical to managing the risks and responsibilities the government held.

On election night, as Trump watched his unexpected victory unfold, Christie noted the bewildered silence and tension among Trump's team. Though Christie had prepared Trump for the required foreign calls and outlined the transition process, the post-election meeting showed a disregard for his efforts.

Christie's role ended abruptly, orchestrated by Steve Bannon at Jared Kushner's behest. The entire transition team was sidelined, their work discarded. Trump, who had played a decisive leader on television, avoided direct confrontations, leaving Bannon to deliver the news.

The dismissal of Christie and his team left the transition in a precarious state. Trump's decision to handle it himself, guided by an inner circle inexperienced in governance, worried even Bannon, who recognized Trump's lack of government knowledge and indifference. Despite this rocky start, the transition pressed on, underscoring the critical nature of planning in the peaceful transfer of power.

Did Christie’s Fumble Set the Stage for A Chaotic Presidency?

On the morning after the 2016 election, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) staff awaited the Trump transition team, recalling how Barack Obama had efficiently sent a team of 30-40 people to the DOE eight years earlier. However, the day after Trump’s victory, silence reigned. No one appeared, and when they did, they seemed unprepared and uninterested in learning about the agency’s complex responsibilities, such as maintaining the nuclear arsenal and managing nuclear waste.

Thomas Pyle, a former Koch Industries lobbyist, led Trump’s small “Landing Team,” raising alarms among DOE staff. He showed little interest in understanding the agency’s $30 billion operations, attending just one brief meeting with Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. The transition team’s lack of engagement was concerning, considering the DOE’s vital role in national security, scientific research, and energy innovation.

John MacWilliams, who served as the DOE’s first-ever chief risk officer, highlighted several major risks the department faced. These included nuclear weapon accidents, threats from North Korea and Iran, and the vulnerability of the U.S. electrical grid. MacWilliams and others in the DOE had spent years preparing for these risks, but their efforts were largely ignored by the incoming administration.

The DOE also faced challenges with long-term projects like the Hanford nuclear site cleanup, which required careful management and significant funding. Trump’s proposed budget cuts to the DOE threatened essential programs, including ARPA-E, which supported innovative energy research. The administration’s approach reflected a broader disdain for scientific expertise and a preference for short-term gains over long-term risk management.

In the end, the Trump administration’s willful ignorance and lack of preparation for the transfer of power left many concerned about the future of the DOE and its ability to manage critical risks. The story serves as a cautionary tale about the importance of understanding and respecting the complexities of government agencies tasked with safeguarding national security and scientific progress.

Trump's DOE Transition: A Silent Storm of Unpreparedness

Ali Zaidi's journey began when he moved from Pakistan to the U.S. at age five. His family left behind a comfortable life in Karachi for a modest one in rural Pennsylvania. Despite financial struggles, Ali's interest in politics thrived, inspired by his parents' discussions on justice and community. As a high schooler, he volunteered for campaigns and America’s Promise Alliance, eventually attending Harvard, despite discouragement from teachers who saw it as a stretch.

At Harvard, Ali's views evolved. Witnessing post-Katrina poverty shifted his perspective on personal responsibility. A debate between professors, Michael Sandel and Greg Mankiw, further challenged his beliefs, and a speech by Barack Obama resonated deeply. He worked on Obama’s campaign, embracing a new political identity.

Ali's career in government began at the Office of Management and Budget, where he learned the complex and extensive role of the USDA in American life. From food safety to disaster relief, the USDA's reach surprised him, particularly when he realized the department had supported his own family.

As Ali navigated the intricacies of government, the Trump administration's approach troubled him. The USDA, crucial for rural development and scientific research, faced potential neglect and politicization. Former USDA officials like Kevin Concannon and Cathie Woteki shared concerns about cuts to vital programs like food stamps and school nutrition, and the sidelining of science.

Lillian Salerno, who worked in rural development, echoed these worries. She feared privatization and the undermining of community-support programs. Her firsthand experiences in small-town America highlighted the disconnect between government work and public perception. Despite the challenges, Salerno aspired to make a difference by running for office.

Ali Zaidi's story is a testament to the invisible yet profound impact of government programs and the individuals dedicated to public service. It underscores the importance of understanding and valuing the systems that support society's fabric, even when they aren't immediately visible.

Can Ali Zaidi's Inspiring Journey Illuminate the Power of Government Programs?

In May 2011, a devastating tornado tore through Joplin, Missouri, leaving unimaginable destruction. Kathy Sullivan, walking through the ruins, noted the eerie distinction between obliterated and untouched areas. Despite advanced warnings from the National Weather Service, many residents ignored the alerts. Sullivan, poised to lead NOAA, pondered why people failed to heed life-saving warnings. The government had mastered weather prediction but not human behavior.

Kathy, a trailblazer, had been the first American woman to walk in space, driven by a mission-focused mindset. Her journey from astronaut to NOAA leadership exemplified her dedication to science and public service. Her experiences underscored the importance of understanding and utilizing data for public good.

Simultaneously, DJ Patil, a data enthusiast, hacked into government servers to access weather data for his research. His findings highlighted the immense value of weather forecasting improvements and their potential ripple effects on history. He later became the U.S.'s first Chief Data Scientist, championing the open use of government data to solve societal issues.

The narrative extends to the complexities within the Department of Commerce, where crucial data like weather forecasts are managed. Under Trump, Wilbur Ross, unaware of NOAA's significance, was appointed, reflecting a disconnect in valuing data's role. The potential appointment of Barry Myers, an AccuWeather executive, to lead NOAA raised concerns about privatizing public weather data.

DJ Patil's work aimed to democratize data, enabling insights into societal challenges like the opioid crisis and police force patterns. His efforts underscored how accessible data could transform understanding and governance.

The story weaves through personal ambition, government dynamics, and the transformative power of data, questioning how public resources should be managed and used for the greater good.

From Spacewalks to Storm Warnings: DJ Patil's Data Revolution

David Friedberg, an astrophysics graduate from UC Berkeley, developed a unique idea to transform weather data into a business opportunity. At 27, he noticed that many industries, like ski resorts and airlines, could benefit from weather insurance. 

Friedberg gathered a team of mathematicians to analyze weather data from NOAA, which had vast untapped resources. His venture, WeatherBill, aimed to use this data to predict weather risks and offer insurance. Despite initial challenges, such as resistance from private weather companies, Friedberg persisted. He discovered a new market with farmers, particularly after a devastating freeze hit California's citrus packers. 

Realizing the potential, Friedberg's company shifted focus to agriculture, using satellite and soil data to better understand and predict crop risks. This approach revolutionized farming, turning it into a data-driven science.

By 2011, WeatherBill rebranded as The Climate Corporation, focusing solely on farmers. Friedberg's data-driven insurance and farming recommendations helped farmers mitigate risks and optimize operations. The company grew rapidly, insuring 150 million acres of American farmland, before being acquired by Monsanto for $1.1 billion. 

Despite his success, Friedberg felt uneasy about the stark contrast between the progress he facilitated and the stagnation he observed in rural America. He noticed how data could highlight societal inequalities, as many Americans lived precariously, exposed to unforeseen risks.

Simultaneously, DJ Patil, the U.S.'s first chief data scientist, witnessed the Trump administration's disregard for data. Public access to crucial information was suppressed, impacting everything from climate change to crime statistics. Patil's memos on the value of government data went unread, revealing a rift in American life: those motivated by mission versus those driven by profit.

Kathy Sullivan, a former astronaut and NOAA administrator, faced challenges with satellite programs crucial for weather forecasting. She advocated for a "Weather-Ready Nation" to better prepare Americans for severe weather, emphasizing communication and understanding public responses.

Kim Klockow, a social scientist, studied how people perceive and respond to tornado threats. Her research showed that many ignored warnings due to a false sense of security, believing tornadoes wouldn't hit them. This insight led to more effective communication strategies that emphasized the reality of the threat.

In 2017, a new tornado model tested by the Storm Prediction Center helped Elk City, Oklahoma, prepare for a devastating tornado. The early warning and effective communication saved lives, demonstrating the potential of combining data with human understanding to mitigate risk.

Through these stories, the narrative highlights the power of data, the challenges of changing perceptions, and the importance of aligning technology with human behavior to improve societal resilience.

Can Data Revolutionize Weather Predictions and Save Lives?

Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor, unexpectedly found himself leading Donald Trump's 2016 presidential transition after realizing Trump's initial pick was laughably unqualified. Despite Trump’s skepticism about the necessity of a transition team, Christie championed the cause, raising funds independently and assembling lists of potential appointees. 

However, internal resistance, particularly from Jared Kushner, ultimately led to Christie’s abrupt dismissal orchestrated by Steve Bannon. This dismissal left the transition in a precarious state, highlighting the importance of planning for a peaceful transfer of power.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) anticipated the arrival of Trump’s transition team after his victory, expecting a thorough briefing similar to the one Barack Obama provided in 2008. However, Trump's team, led by Thomas Pyle, showed little interest in learning about the DOE's complex responsibilities. This lack of engagement raised concerns about the department's ability to manage vital national security operations and scientific research.

Ali Zaidi, who moved from Pakistan to the U.S. as a child, exemplified the invisible impact of government programs. His interest in politics led him to work on Obama’s campaign and eventually in government, where he learned the broad scope of the USDA’s work. Zaidi's experiences highlighted the potential neglect and politicization under the Trump administration, raising alarms about cuts to crucial programs like food stamps and school nutrition.

In Missouri, Kathy Sullivan, poised to lead NOAA, confronted the challenge of understanding human behavior in response to advanced weather warnings. Her journey from astronaut to NOAA administrator exemplified dedication to science and public service, emphasizing the importance of data for public good. Meanwhile, DJ Patil, the first U.S. Chief Data Scientist, worked to democratize data, showcasing its potential to address societal issues like the opioid crisis.

David Friedberg transformed weather data into a business opportunity, creating WeatherBill to offer insurance based on weather risks. His company evolved into The Climate Corporation, revolutionizing farming with data-driven insights. Despite his success, Friedberg observed societal inequalities exposed by data, reflecting on the contrast between progress and rural stagnation.

Through these narratives, the story underscores the transformative power of data, the challenges of aligning technology with human behavior, and the critical nature of government planning in safeguarding national security and scientific progress.

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The Fifth Risk: Undoing Democracy

Michael Lewis

6 Key ideas

15 MINS

4.7 (2.3k)

What happens when political ambition collides with a lack of preparation in a high-stakes government transition?

How do we ensure that science, resilience, and public service prevail in the face of disruption?

From Chris Christie’s turbulent role in Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential handover to Ali Zaidi’s journey, explore the untold stories of chaos.

What happens when political ambition collides with a lack of preparation in a high-stakes government transition?

How do we ensure that science, resilience, and public service prevail in the face of disruption?

From Chris Christie’s turbulent role in Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential handover to Ali Zaidi’s journey, explore the untold stories of chaos.

Improve your Career, Health & Life with 15min insights from 9000+ non-fiction books

Key Ideas

#1

Did Christie’s Fumble Set the Stage for A Chaotic Presidency?

#2

Trump's DOE Transition: A Silent Storm of Unpreparedness

#3

Can Ali Zaidi's Inspiring Journey Illuminate the Power of Government Programs?

#4

From Spacewalks to Storm Warnings: DJ Patil's Data Revolution

#5

Can Data Revolutionize Weather Predictions and Save Lives?

#6

Final Recap

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