Ever wondered what the future holds with the rapid advancement of AI and biotechnology? How will the world change as technology becomes increasingly accessible and influential? Will the traditional nation-state be able to adapt and maintain control? Explore the profound implications of these emerging technologies, reflect on their potential risks, and propose a unified approach to navigate the coming wave.

The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

In human history, there have been pivotal moments, like the discovery of fire, the invention of the wheel, and the harnessing of electricity, that have profoundly transformed civilization. 

We now stand at the brink of another such moment with the rise of advanced technology, particularly AI and biotechnology. These technologies promise to unlock the secrets of the universe, cure diseases, and create sustainable agriculture. However, they also pose significant risks, such as uncontrollable AI systems and unintended consequences from manipulating the building blocks of life.

Every culture has flood myths, symbolizing transformative waves that reshape the world. Similarly, technological advancements have historically spread in waves, becoming cheaper and more accessible over time. This trend has driven humanity's relentless evolution of ideas and creation, shaping our quest to improve our lot and influence our environment. The question now is what happens with the next great wave of AI and synthetic biology.

These technologies offer immense potential to create wealth and address global challenges. However, they also pose risks of disruption, instability, and catastrophe. Containing this wave is seemingly impossible, raising the stakes for humanity's future. As these technologies advance, they could lead to techno-authoritarianism or catastrophic outcomes if not properly managed.

The founders of DeepMind recognized the potential of AI to tackle intractable problems, but also its risks. Over the last decade, AI has made staggering progress, from recognizing faces and objects to generating novel images and text. The rapid pace of AI development suggests we might reach human-level performance across many tasks soon, bringing both extraordinary benefits and profound dangers.

Despite the immense potential of these technologies, the risks they pose are significant. AI, synthetic biology, and other advanced technologies could disrupt nation-states, lead to automated wars, or create engineered pandemics. The likelihood of these outcomes may be small, but their consequences are vast, requiring urgent attention.

Some may argue that technological change is incremental and manageable, but the sheer scale and speed of the coming wave suggest otherwise. The pessimism-aversion trap, our tendency to avoid confronting dark realities, hinders our ability to address these challenges. We must overcome this trap to ensure technology serves humanity and avoids catastrophic outcomes.

This book aims to illuminate the contours of the coming wave, explore the possibility of containment, and confront the dilemma of balancing technological benefits with risks. It is essential to develop robust mechanisms to control and contain these technologies, ensuring they enrich our lives without leading to catastrophic or dystopian outcomes. The stakes are high, and the future depends on our ability to navigate this unprecedented technological landscape.

Is the Next Wave of AI and Biotechnology the Fire and Wheel of Our Time?

For most of history, personal transportation meant walking or being carried by animals. The railway revolutionized transport in the 19th century, but engines were bulky. 

Innovators like Nicolas-Joseph Cugnot and Jean Joseph Étienne Lenoir made early attempts at self-propelled vehicles, yet it was Carl Benz's 1886 Motorwagen that truly initiated the car era. His wife, Bertha, famously drove it 65 miles, proving its viability. However, cars remained expensive until Henry Ford's 1908 Model T and its assembly line production made them affordable. This accessibility led to a rapid increase in car ownership, transforming society. Today, around 1.4 billion cars exist, powered by increasingly efficient internal combustion engines.

Technology, throughout history, has proliferated in waves driven by innovations like stone tools, fire, and eventually, electricity and the internet. Each wave builds on previous ones, creating interconnected advancements. The printing press, for instance, drastically reduced book costs and spread knowledge. Similarly, electricity's global adoption transformed economies.

The modern era saw unprecedented technological proliferation, especially in computing. Initially niche, computing spread rapidly post-WWII, driven by innovations like the transistor and integrated circuits. This led to the digital age, with billions of connected devices and exponential data growth.

However, each wave of technology also brings unintended consequences. From environmental impacts to societal disruptions, the challenge lies in containing these effects. Nuclear weapons, despite nonproliferation efforts, illustrate the difficulty of containment. Successful containment, like the Montreal Protocol's CFC ban, is rare and often incomplete.

As we face new technological frontiers, from gene editing to AI, the challenge is ensuring these advancements benefit humanity without causing harm. This requires a balance of regulation, ethical considerations, and global cooperation, recognizing that technology's spread is both inevitable and transformative.

From Benz to Ford: How Tech Titans Revolutionized Transportation and Society

It was 2012, in DeepMind’s London office. They had developed an algorithm called DQN, which they trained to play classic Atari games like Breakout. Initially, DQN struggled, but eventually, it discovered a clever strategy on its own, achieving superhuman performance. This breakthrough was just the beginning of AI's potential.

In 2016, the AI AlphaGo, trained to play the complex game of Go, beat world champion Lee Sedol. AlphaGo’s victory was a public display of AI’s capabilities and marked the end of the “AI winter,” heralding a new era of technological advancements.

The history of technology has been about humanity’s quest to manipulate atoms, but now, we are entering an era dominated by AI and synthetic biology. These technologies are accelerating at unprecedented rates, transforming everything from computer vision to language processing. For instance, the advent of large language models like ChatGPT has revolutionized natural language processing, making AI more accessible and integrated into our daily lives.

In the coming years, AI will become as ubiquitous as the internet, with large-scale models trained on massive datasets, capable of performing tasks that were once the domain of human experts. These advancements are not just incremental but exponential, driving forward a wave of technological change that will redefine our world.

As AI systems grow more capable, we must focus on their practical applications and ethical implications. While debates about AI consciousness and superintelligence continue, the real challenge lies in harnessing AI’s capabilities to solve complex, real-world problems. The future of AI promises transformative impacts, making it essential to understand and responsibly manage its development. 

We are at a pivotal moment in history, with AI poised to become a fundamental part of the fabric of our lives, driving forward innovation and potentially surpassing human intelligence in many domains. The journey is just beginning, and the coming wave of AI will shape the twenty-first century in profound ways.

How Did DeepMind's AlphaGo Revolutionize the Future of AI?

Life, the universe's oldest technology, is 3.7 billion years old, evolving slowly until humans began to decode biology's mysteries. In recent decades, biology has transformed into an engineering tool, with changes now happening at an exponential pace. Living systems are sophisticated, self-assembling, and self-healing, and the convergence of biology and engineering is the most significant transformation of our lifetime.

Genetic engineering, one of humanity's oldest technologies, has evolved dramatically. The Human Genome Project, a thirteen-year endeavor, made the human genetic map legible and marked the beginning of a revolution. The cost of genome sequencing has plummeted, making it accessible and leading to a booming business. CRISPR gene editing, led by Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuelle Charpentier, allows precise genetic modifications, promising treatments for diseases like sickle-cell disease, beta-thalassemia, and potentially cancer.

Synthetic biology, another transformative field, has emerged, enabling the creation of new genetic sequences. Gene synthesis, or DNA printing, allows scientists to write new strands of DNA, leading to profound transformations in medicine, materials, and more. Companies like DNA Script and the London DNA Foundry are commercializing DNA printers, making the creation of DNA faster and cheaper.

Biotechnology's potential is vast, including medical advances, personalized medicine, and even longevity and regenerative technologies. Altos Labs, for example, is seeking anti-aging technologies. Cognitive, aesthetic, physical, and performance enhancements are also plausible, raising ethical and societal questions.

The convergence of AI and synthetic biology is accelerating, leading to breakthroughs like AlphaFold, which solved the protein folding problem, revolutionizing computational biology. AI and synthetic biology are intertwined, enhancing each other's capabilities and opening up new possibilities.

As AI and synthetic biology continue to evolve, they promise to transform every aspect of our lives, from medicine to agriculture to manufacturing, ushering in an age of synthetic life. Welcome to the future, where machines come alive and the boundaries of the possible are constantly redefined.

CRISPR and AI: Jennifer Doudna's Revolution in Synthetic Biology

In February 2022, when Russian forces began their invasion, Kyiv's residents anticipated a grim fate. The advancing Russian column, equipped with tanks and artillery, seemed unstoppable. 

Yet, a small, improvised Ukrainian militia, Aerorozvidka, turned the tide. Using quad bikes and drones, this group of tech-savvy volunteers disrupted the Russian supply lines, demonstrating the power of consumer technology in modern warfare. Their success was amplified by advanced AI strategies, emphasizing the asymmetric power of new technologies.

Throughout history, innovations like the printing press and steam engines have shifted power dynamics, enabling small groups to challenge giants. The recent advancements in AI and drones follow this trend, offering immense capabilities at a fraction of traditional costs. The Ukrainian resistance illustrated how accessible tech could level the playing field against a formidable adversary.

However, these advancements pose challenges. Technologies evolve rapidly and possess dual-use potential, serving both civilian and military purposes. Autonomous systems, once a sci-fi concept, are now a reality, raising questions about human control. As AI and genetics advance, their unpredictable nature and potential for autonomy become apparent.

The geopolitical landscape is also shifting. China, galvanized by events like AlphaGo's victory, aims to lead in AI by 2030. This ambition has sparked a global tech race, with nations vying for supremacy. The stakes are high, as technological leadership equates to geopolitical influence.

The incentives driving technological progress are vast. Beyond national pride, the pursuit of profit, global challenges like climate change, and human ego fuel innovation. As history shows, the pursuit of profit has consistently driven technological advancements, transforming societies. Today's tech giants, with their vast resources, are at the forefront of this wave.

Yet, as technology advances, so do the challenges. The interconnected nature of global systems makes containment difficult. Technologies like CRISPR and AI can't be "put back in the box." The nation-state, the traditional anchor of political systems, faces strain as it grapples with these rapid changes.

The coming wave of technology is inevitable, driven by deep-seated human desires and systemic incentives. The challenge lies in navigating its impact, ensuring it serves humanity's best interests.

Can AI and Drones Like Aerorozvidka’s Defend Nations Against Superpowers?

Over the last 500 years, the centralization of power in the nation-state has been crucial for peace and prosperity, enabling economic growth and security. This grand bargain, where centralized power is balanced by checks and institutional forms, is now under threat, mainly due to advancing technology. The state’s ability to manage this technological wave is in question, and the implications for the future are profound.

The author once worked in government and nonprofit sectors, which highlighted both the potential and limitations of these institutions. For instance, during the 2009 Copenhagen climate negotiations, despite efforts to align hundreds of NGOs and experts, consensus was elusive due to scattered priorities and conflicting opinions. This experience mirrored his time at London’s city hall, where practical challenges often stymied progress despite clear legal responsibilities.

Technology is not a panacea, but it can aid in addressing major issues like climate change and healthcare. However, the rise of synthetic biology and AI also poses new risks. Wannacry ransomware attack in 2017, which crippled Britain’s NHS, exemplifies the vulnerabilities of our institutions to cyber threats. The attack, exploiting a US-developed cyber-weapon, highlighted the dangers of uncontained technology. Future attacks could be even more sophisticated, using AI to adapt and evolve, posing a significant threat to national security.

Moreover, the democratization of power through technology means more individuals and groups, including bad actors, will have access to powerful tools. This includes AI-driven cyber-attacks, autonomous drones, and misinformation campaigns capable of destabilizing governments and societies. For instance, deepfakes used in political campaigns or disinformation spread by state actors can severely erode trust and amplify social divisions.

Biological research also carries risks, as seen with past lab leaks like the 1977 Russian flu. Even well-intentioned research can lead to unintended consequences, such as pandemics originating from lab accidents. Gain-of-function research, though aimed at preventing epidemics, could similarly lead to catastrophic outcomes if containment fails.

Automation is another significant challenge, potentially displacing millions of jobs and destabilizing economies. While new job categories may emerge, the transition may not be swift or sufficient to counteract the disruptions, leading to widespread economic and social instability.

All these factors—cyber threats, misinformation, biological risks, and automation—are interconnected and exacerbate the fragility of nation-states. They highlight the urgent need for robust, agile, and trustworthy governance to navigate the coming technological wave and ensure it benefits humanity rather than leading to chaos and instability.

Navigating Technological Chaos: Lessons from Copenhagen to Wannacry

At first glance, stirrups might seem simple, but they revolutionized warfare. Before stirrups, cavalry charges were easily repelled; riders were vulnerable and could be dismounted by infantry. Stirrups changed that, fixing knights to their horses and transforming them into a powerful offensive force. Charles Martel used this innovation to defeat the Saracens, leading to the rise of feudalism—a social system based on the new heavy cavalry. This tiny invention altered society for nearly a thousand years.

Technological advances often create new power centers and social infrastructures. Today, exponential technologies are causing power to be both concentrated and dispersed, making it difficult to predict future impacts. These changes can strengthen or weaken incumbents and lead to both centralization and fragmentation of power.

Historical examples show how technological advancements, like the British East India Company's control over India, can create powerful quasi-empires. Similarly, modern corporations like Apple and Google wield immense influence, rivaling nation-states. Concentrations of power are evident, with top firms controlling a significant share of global wealth and capabilities.

However, the coming wave of technology will also enable decentralization. AI, cheap robotics, and advanced biotech could make off-grid living viable, reducing reliance on nation-states. This could lead to a fragmented world where small, state-like entities operate independently, challenging traditional hierarchies.

Surveillance technology, particularly in authoritarian states like China, demonstrates how governments can tighten control. China's extensive surveillance infrastructure, including facial recognition and bio-data collection, exemplifies the potential for centralized power.

Yet, decentralization will also occur. Open-source AI and biotechnology will empower individuals and small groups, enabling them to provide services traditionally managed by states. This could lead to a world where various entities, from corporations to communities, wield significant power.

The future will see contradictory trends of centralization and decentralization. Both will coexist, creating a dynamic and unpredictable landscape. The internet era's tension between empowerment and control will be magnified, affecting all aspects of life. As technology reshapes society, the state faces an existential crisis, struggling to manage these changes and maintain control.

Will Apple and Google Shape the Future?

Throughout history, humanity has danced on the precipice of catastrophe, from devastating pandemics like the Black Death to the man-made horrors of wars and nuclear threats. Now, as we stand on the brink of a new technological era, the potential for disaster has never been greater. The very tools that promise to enhance our lives could also unleash unprecedented havoc, like AI systems that might inadvertently cause destruction or engineered pandemics that could spread uncontrollably.

The dilemma is stark: how do we harness technology's promise without succumbing to its perils? The risk isn't just theoretical—imagine drones equipped with facial recognition launching attacks, or AI systems mismanaging essential infrastructure. We've glimpsed this dark potential with groups like Aum Shinrikyo, who aimed to hasten the apocalypse with chemical attacks, and it's chilling to think what more advanced technologies could enable.

Yet, these risks are not just fodder for dystopian fiction. The real danger lies in complacency, dismissing these threats as mere sci-fi fantasies while the technologies evolve rapidly around us. As catastrophic risks grow, so does the temptation for societies to tighten control, ushering in an era of surveillance, where the cure might be as bad as the disease.

Conversely, halting technological progress isn't an option either. Our civilization's survival hinges on continuous innovation to meet challenges like climate change and demographic shifts. Without it, stagnation could lead to collapse, as history has shown with countless fallen civilizations.

We're caught between the poles of catastrophe and dystopia, a technological tightrope with no easy answers. This is the essential dilemma of our age—how to navigate a future where technology remains a double-edged sword, capable of both incredible good and unspeakable harm. It demands a delicate balance, a relentless pursuit of safety without sacrificing the freedom that fuels innovation. The stakes have never been higher, and the path forward requires a collective and conscious effort to tip the scales toward a brighter future.

Navigating the Technological Tightrope: Balancing Innovation and Catastrophe

The author once planned to write a book with a more optimistic view of the future of technology. However, the COVID-19 pandemic gave him time to reflect and realize that exponential change is inevitable. The real question is how we address it. 

After countless conversations with AI researchers, CEOs, policymakers, scientists, lawyers, students, and even random people at the pub, most people suggest regulation as the solution, but regulation alone is not enough. Governments face multiple crises and are often unprepared for fast-moving challenges. Even technologists struggle with the pace of change, so what chance do regulators have? 

Technology evolves quickly, while legislation takes years. A new product like Ring doorbells can change the landscape before regulation catches up. We need an approach that unifies disparate conversations about technology and addresses the interconnected risks. The price of scattered insights is failure, and right now, scattered insights are all we have.

Regulation, like the EU's AI Act, is a start but faces many challenges. It must tackle something critical to the economy and fast-evolving. Effective containment requires not just regulation but also norms, ownership structures, and public buy-in. We don't have the luxury of time to develop these over decades.

Containment must be a unified goal, integrating technical, cultural, and regulatory aspects. It means having the power to stop technology's negative impacts and steer its development. We need guardrails to keep humanity in control when technology risks causing more harm than good.

We must ask critical questions about the nature of technology to develop a holistic vision of containment. Is it omni-use or specific? Does it enable asymmetric impact or have autonomous characteristics? Does it confer geopolitical advantage? The goal is to create conditions where containment is possible.

Despite the challenges, we must try. The coming wave of technology is unstoppable, but its final form is still undecided.

Can We Shape the Future of Technology Before It Overruns Us?

Ten Steps Toward Containment:

1. Safety: An Apollo Program for Technical Safety.
AI models, like early large language models (LLMs), have struggled with ingrained biases, including racism. Although significant progress has been made in reducing harmful outputs through reinforcement learning from human feedback, the issue is far from resolved. Ensuring technical safety is the bedrock of any containment strategy, necessitating an Apollo-like program to focus on AI and biosafety, with a substantial increase in dedicated researchers.

2. Audits: Knowledge is Power; Power is Control.
Audits, though seemingly dull, are critical for verifying that safety measures are effective. This involves creating robust oversight mechanisms, such as government-led audits and red teaming, where systems are rigorously tested for weaknesses. Transparency and external scrutiny are essential for ensuring trust and accountability in technology.

3. Choke Points: Buy Time.
Strategic export controls, like the U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductors to China, can slow down technological development, buying time to develop containment strategies and build defensive technologies. This approach leverages critical R&D and commercialization hubs to regulate the pace of technological advancement.

4. Makers: Critics Should Build It.
Technologists have a responsibility to address the problems their creations may cause. This involves critics actively participating in the development process to ensure that technology is built responsibly. Engaging in the creation and governance of technology can help steer it in positive directions and mitigate potential harms.

5. Businesses: Profit + Purpose.
Corporations must reconcile profit with social purpose. Innovative business models, like public benefit corporations and B Corps, can align incentives with safety and containment goals. Experimenting with governance structures that prioritize ethical considerations alongside shareholder returns is crucial for adapting to the challenges of the coming wave.

6. Governments: Survive, Reform, Regulate.
Governments must play a proactive role in building, setting standards, and regulating technology. This includes investing in in-house technical expertise, monitoring developments, and implementing robust licensing regimes for advanced technologies. Fiscal policies should also be reformed to fund security and welfare, ensuring a fair transition from labor to capital.

7. Alliances: Time for Treaties.
International cooperation is essential for addressing global technological risks. Alliances like the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Montreal Protocol provide precedents for collaborative efforts. Establishing global institutions dedicated to technology governance, like an AI Audit Authority, can enhance transparency and facilitate international agreements.

8. Culture: Respectfully Embracing Failure.
A culture of learning from mistakes is vital for containment. The aviation industry's success in improving safety through rigorous analysis of failures serves as a model. Embracing failure means being open about mistakes, sharing knowledge, and fostering a culture of safety and accountability in technology development.

9. Movements: People Power.
Building a broad-based movement for responsible technology is crucial. Public engagement, citizen assemblies, and grassroots activism can drive change and ensure that containment strategies are democratically decided and widely supported. Popular pressure can create new norms and hold technologists and governments accountable.

10. The Narrow Path: The Only Way is Through.
Containment is an ongoing process, a narrow and treacherous path requiring constant vigilance and effort. Combining technical safety measures, audits, strategic choke points, responsible development, innovative business models, proactive government involvement, international cooperation, a culture of learning, and public movements can collectively create the conditions for managing the risks of the coming wave. While the challenge is immense, the potential rewards for humanity's long-term flourishing make it a fight worth undertaking.

Charting Containment: An Apollo-like Mission for AI Safety

Throughout history, humanity has been shaped by transformative technological advances, such as fire, the wheel, and electricity. Today, we stand on the brink of another significant shift with AI and biotechnology. These technologies hold the potential to solve many global issues, but they also come with substantial risks, including uncontrollable AI and unforeseen consequences of genetic manipulation.

Technological advancements tend to spread in waves, becoming cheaper and more accessible, driving societal evolution. As we face the next wave of AI and synthetic biology, the stakes are high. These technologies could either create immense wealth and solve global challenges or lead to disruptions, instability, and even catastrophic outcomes.

The founders of DeepMind recognized AI's potential and its risks. AI has made rapid progress, and its future capabilities could bring both benefits and dangers. The risks posed by AI and synthetic biology, though unlikely, could have vast consequences, necessitating urgent attention.

Technological change is not incremental but exponential, presenting new challenges for regulation and governance. The interconnected nature of our global systems makes containment difficult. Effective management of these technologies requires a balance of regulation, ethical considerations, and global cooperation.

The convergence of AI and synthetic biology is accelerating, leading to breakthroughs that could transform medicine, agriculture, and manufacturing. However, the democratization of power through technology poses new risks, including cyber threats, misinformation, and the potential for autonomous systems.

The nation-state, traditionally a stabilizing force, faces strain due to rapid technological advancements. The future will see both centralization and decentralization of power, creating a dynamic and unpredictable landscape. Governments must adapt to manage these changes and maintain control.

Ultimately, we must navigate a future where technology remains a double-edged sword. Regulation alone is insufficient; we need a unified approach integrating technical, cultural, and regulatory aspects. By focusing on technical safety, audits, strategic controls, responsible development, and international cooperation, we can create conditions for effective containment. The challenge is immense, but the potential rewards for humanity's long-term flourishing make it a fight worth undertaking.

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The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

Mustafa Suleyman

Ever wondered what the future holds with the rapid advancement of AI and biotechnology?

How will the world change as technology becomes increasingly accessible and influential?

Will the traditional nation-state be able to adapt and maintain control?

Explore the profound implications of these emerging technologies, reflect on their potential risks, and propose a unified approach to navigate the coming wave.

Key Ideas

#1